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24/08/2009RATIONALIZATION IN FERTILIZER USEBy José Francisco da Cunha
Below we show the performance of fertilizer sector until July. It is an unusual year. Considering the forecast to a market around 21 to 21.5 million of tons, the delivery in first semester of 2009 were bigger than in 2006, however it stays close to the first semester of 2007 rates. It is sure that in relation to 2008 there is no comparison because it was a year that stood accelerated by the buying anticipation from the producers, who tried to purchase before the announced increase of prices.
Anyway, still remains around 60% of the total provided for this year.
The main impact will be on imports because of the big stock of the last year’s end and a market that might stays under the year before, they should decrease a lot. The national producers need to cover the international market prices to drain the national production that is expected to decrease too (mainly about the Super Simples).
The change relations are still not favorable to all products, despite it improved for some cultures that are with higher prices, like potato. But it is still not attractive even to the cultures that are in lower prices. See the soil case, which change relation, today, in 22.0sacs/t, better than in 2008 but over than in 2007, when it was around 20.5 sacs/t.
What will happen is a better utilization of the fertilizers.
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